Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.873769 1.019699 1.182174 1.376454 1.602460 1.857110 2.165894
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.629021 0.819636 1.055843 1.369987 1.776938 2.286579 2.973947
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.503900 0.710369 0.986521 1.382730 1.936860 2.684974 3.773300
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.402975 0.605716 0.894268 1.334638 1.990118 2.930759 4.385928
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.365984 0.581360 0.904735 1.425188 2.242504 3.478539 5.494393
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.307477 0.513265 0.837440 1.384671 2.286337 3.715546 6.159432
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.259927 0.454020 0.773475 1.336756 2.306473 3.910868 6.775357
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.222709 0.405702 0.719370 1.295221 2.327640 4.104848 7.407144
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.202288 0.383224 0.705323 1.319309 2.462497 4.504343 8.442021
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.193614 0.380530 0.725302 1.406108 2.719442 5.147722 9.996632
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.180081 0.366543 0.722292 1.448756 2.898210 5.667713 11.384156
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.164325 0.345854 0.703550 1.457797 3.011908 6.076009 12.603566
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.147659 0.321471 0.675316 1.446025 3.086539 6.425075 13.767854
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.133368 0.300136 0.650650 1.438704 3.170331 6.805094 15.052639
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.122661 0.284968 0.636728 1.452053 3.299148 7.293219 16.631449
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.108180 0.259218 0.596446 1.401560 3.280385 7.461883 17.526384
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.106017 0.261620 0.619015 1.496625 3.603133 8.421536 20.343442
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.094659 0.240457 0.584796 1.454088 3.599271 8.640105 21.455429
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.084176 0.219940 0.549386 1.403784 3.569774 8.794449 22.431967
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.075300 0.202214 0.518405 1.360178 3.550761 8.970800 23.485223
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.071015 0.195814 0.514732 1.385467 3.709307 9.601588 25.774720
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.070264 0.198751 0.535239 1.476593 4.050783 10.733791 29.518849
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.067293 0.195184 0.538277 1.521367 4.274741 11.590674 32.640953